At eXpcon 2026, Pareja says 2027 sales could fall below 4 million for the first time since 1995, but life events will keep the market moving
BELLINGHAM, Wash., Oct. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — eXp Realty®, “the most agent-centric™ real estate brokerage on the planet” and the core operating subsidiary of AGNT, Inc. (Nasdaq: AGNT), today shared key findings from AGNT, Inc. CEO Leo Pareja’s housing market outlook, delivered at eXpcon in Salt Lake City. Pareja told agents the industry’s biggest correction already happened.
“The collapse already happened three years ago. It happened in the transaction count,” Pareja told attendees, referring to sales since 2023 hovering around 4 million annually. “Two record-breaking booms warped our expectations. They stole tomorrow’s buyers with low interest rates and a frenzy that we’re just sitting through the hangover of.”
73 million more people. The same number of sales.
Pareja used population growth to put the drop in perspective. In 1996, the U.S. recorded more than 4 million existing-home sales with about 269 million residents. Thirty years later, the country has about 342 million residents. Annual existing-home sales are again tracking near 4 million.
Most forecasts project about 4 million existing-home sales in 2027. Pareja was more cautious, saying mortgage rates and the economy could hold sales near current levels or push them below 4 million for the first time since 1995.
However, Pareja pointed out there will still be millions of home sales next year, and agents need to find the opportunities in their local markets. “Whether it’s 3.9 or 4.1, life events drive all real estate decisions. It will force people to move no matter what,” Pareja said.
Anchored to an anomaly
Pareja said the industry keeps measuring today against unusual years. The Fed has cut rates to zero only twice since 1954, after the Great Recession and during COVID-19. Since 1971, 30-year mortgage rates have averaged about 7.7%, and today’s rates remain below that.
“The last 20 years were so crazy that we forgot what normal looks like,” Pareja said.
Pareja does not expect relief soon. “We could see a rate with an 8 in front of it way before we see one with a five,” he said. He also noted that mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. A Fed cut does not guarantee cheaper mortgages.
No price collapse
Pareja pushed back on predictions of a broad price crash. The national median existing-home price reached $429,100, up 1.6% year over year. Of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets, 246 posted year-over-year price gains in September and 54 posted declines. A year earlier, 109 were declining. Today’s declines run 2% to 4%, far from the 20% to 30% drops of the Great Recession.
Inventory growth has also cooled. Inventory rose 28.9% in 2025 but only 5.9% in 2026.
“National headlines do not live on your street,” Pareja told agents.
The work ahead
Pareja urged agents to stop waiting for conditions to change. More homeowners now hold mortgages above 6% than below 3%. Recent sellers owned their homes an average of 8.44 years. More owners are reaching the point where life events outweigh rate-lock hesitation.
“We don’t get paid to fill out contracts. We don’t get paid to coordinate parties. We get paid to help people navigate one of the most important financial decisions of their lives,” Pareja said.
Watch Pareja’s full 2027 housing market outlook from eXpcon 2026 here.
About AGNT, Inc. (AGNT)
Built by Agents. Built for Agents. AGNT, Inc. (Nasdaq: AGNT) is the global parent company of eXp Realty®, the most agent-centric™ real estate brokerage on the planet, NextHome, Inc., an award-winning national real estate franchise, FrameVR.io, a virtual collaboration platform, and SUCCESS® Enterprises, a leading personal development and media brand for entrepreneurs. Together, the AGNT platform provides a world-class multi-model operating system empowering independent agents, franchise owners, and team leaders across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia Pacific, and South Africa. As a publicly traded company, AGNT prioritizes transparency, innovation, and long-term value for agents, franchise owners, staff, and shareholders.
Safe Harbor and Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements reflect the Company’s and its management’s current expectations, but involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could impact actual results materially. These statements include, but are not limited to, projections and views regarding future housing market conditions, including existing-home sales volumes, home prices, inventory levels, mortgage rates, and broader economic conditions, as well as statements about the potential impact of those conditions on the Company’s business and its agents. The views expressed by Mr. Pareja, including those in the video linked in this release, are forward-looking in nature and are not guarantees of future performance. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in forward-looking statements include real estate market fluctuations, changes in mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield, changes in monetary policy and economic conditions, housing inventory and affordability, competitive pressures, regulatory changes, and other risks detailed from time to time in the Company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to the most recently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Annual Report on Form 10-K. We do not undertake any obligation to update these statements except as required by law.
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